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☆ Supply chains may be moving out of China and into Asia — but they aren't really decoupling from the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Supply chains are diversifying away from China, causing a shift in global-trade patterns. Data shows that while manufacturing activity for end products has been moving out of China, supply chains haven't decoupled from the country. "Companies are moving manufacturing processes to other countries, including parts of Asia and North America, to diversify their supply chains. Companies are moving their supply chains out of China. As Insider reported in April, even Chinese companies are moving their supply chains out of China to avoid risks.

Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Misha Govshteyn, Nomura, Sonal Varma, reexported, —, Frederic Neumann, Yukon Huang, Genevieve Slosberg, Lu Yucong, Carnegie's Huang, MaroFab's Govshteyn Organizations: Service, Apple, Mazda, Asia Supply, Nomura Holdings, East, HSBC, Association of Southeast, Nations, Carnegie Asia Program, Financial Times Locations: China, Southeast Asia, Wall, Silicon, Asia, Washington, Beijing, Vietnam, Bangladesh, North America, Houston, South Korea, Hong Kong, China's, India, Japan, Europe, Yukon, America, United States, Guangdong

"The price of global rice prices is particularly worrying," Qingfeng Zhang, a senior director from the Asian Development Bank, told CNBC. Other than India, food inflation has been relatively tame in Asia so far this year. Underscoring how higher food prices erode purchasing power, ADB suggested at that time that a 10% rise in domestic food prices in developing Asia would push 64.4 million into poverty, based on the $1.25-a-day poverty line. Moreover, this spike in rice prices is happening amidst widespread lower food prices. watch nowThis means any spikes in food prices will only translate to food inflation toward the end of this year or early 2024.

Persons: Qingfeng Zhang, El Niño, Niño, Erica Tay, Tay, Tay . Rice, Xi Jinping, Morgan Stanley, Maybank Nomura, Sonal Varma, Si Ying Toh, Nomura, Paul Hughes, Hughes, Global's Hughes Organizations: Istock, Asian Development Bank, CNBC, ADB, United Nations, FAO, Tay . Locations: Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, Asia, India, Thailand, China, Myanmar, Cambodia, Tay, U.S, El, Australia, Pacific, Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia

☆ Central banks in Asia could soon diverge from the Fed, Nomura says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Francois Lochon | Gamma-rapho | Getty ImagesCentral banks in Asia could start cutting rates earlier than the Federal Reserve, economists at Nomura predicted. "Our view of Asian central banks cutting policy rates ahead of the Fed in this cycle is based on the fundamental divergences between Asian and U.S. economies," Nomura economists wrote. China's producer prices have already entered deflation territory, while South Korea's inflation hovered around 2.7%, nearing its central bank's target. Seoul could start cutsNomura expects the Bank of Korea to be one of the first central banks after China to cut rates. They pointed to the central bank's governor Rhee Chang-yong shrugging off investor concerns about a weakening South Korean currency.

Persons: Francois Lochon, Sonal Varma, Nomura, lockdowns, BOK, Rhee Chang, Rhee Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Nomura, Federal, Bank of, CNBC, Korean, U.S Locations: Seoul, South, Asia, U.S, China, sputter, Indonesia, Philippines, India, Korea, Singapore, Bank of Korea

☆ India's central bank isn't letting its guard down, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia's central bank isn't letting its guard down, economist saysSonal Varma of Nomura discusses the outlook for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy and says it's monitoring factors such as El Nino and a potential rise in oil prices. She adds that an interest rate hike is unlikely.

Persons: Sonal Varma, Nomura Organizations: Reserve Bank, El Nino

☆ Worst of inflation is behind India, Nomura says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorst of inflation is behind India, Nomura saysSonal Varma of the financial services firm says inflation in India will probably be closer to 5% between April and March 2024.

☆ Adani vs. Hindenburg: How Asia’s richest man lost his crown in just a few days
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Gautam Adani, billionaire and chairman of Adani Group, during an event at the Port of Haifa in Haifa, Israel, on Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2023. According to Forbes, Gautam Adani, the founder and chairman of the group, has lost his status as Asia's richest man to Mukesh Ambani, the chairman of Reliance Industries. Hindenburg, which said it has taken a short position in Adani Group, stands to benefit from the declining value of those stocks. Adani's battle with the short-seller firm has put the group's exposure to Wall Street — amounting to nearly $9 billion, according to JPMorgan — under the spotlight. In just one week, Indian billionaire Gautam Adani saw more than $34 billion wiped off his net worth, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Food and fertiliser subsidies that help two-thirds of India's 1.4 billion people will also be scaled back, according to the survey. But private investment has lagged New Delhi's lead for about a decade. Capex is set to increase in fiscal 2023/24 by about 17% to 8.85 trillion Indian rupees ($109 billion), from an estimated 7.50 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year, itself up roughly 35% on a year before. Reuters Poll: Indian budget projections - 1The total of public and private investment as a proportion of the economy has declined since 2014, when Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party swept to power. The poll also found the government would cut food and fertiliser subsidies by 26% to 3.7 trillion rupees from almost 5.0 trillion rupees expected during the current fiscal year.

☆ RBI may deliver 'final' 25 basis point rate hike in February: Nomura
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect India's central bank to deliver a 'final' 25 basis point rate hike in February: EconomistSonal Varma of Nomura says that's because of "elevated core inflation," adding that it should be the last hike of this cycle.

☆ No spending spree likely in last full Indian budget before 2024 election: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The Indian government will focus on fiscal consolidation in its Feb. 1 budget, the last full one before a 2024 general election, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said slowing economic growth would limit it from spending more. That will likely limit the government's ability to provide relief to households and businesses facing an uneven recovery from the pandemic. Economic growth likely slowed sharply to an annual 4.6% in the December quarter from 6.3% reported in the preceding quarter. Sitharaman's expected fiscal prudence coincides with state assembly elections in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in 2023, which would likely discourage the government from making deep cuts to social welfare. Among those who expect it to be a more populist budget, some said the government would announce new subsidies, an increase in healthcare and rural spending to boost jobs.

☆ We're expecting India's economic growth to slow next year, says Nomura economist
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're expecting India's economic growth to slow next year, says Nomura economistSonal Varma of Nomura says the country will probably be able to hit a growth rate of 7% this financial year but slow to around 4.7% in the next.

☆ India's rice export ban: The Asian countries set to be hit hard — and those that’ll profit
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Rice production in India has fallen by 5.6% year on year as of September in light of below-average monsoon rainfall, which has affected harvest, Nomura said. India, the world's largest rice exporter, has banned shipments of broken rice — a move that will reverberate across Asia, according to Nomura. India accounts for approximately 40% of global rice shipments, exporting to more than 150 countries. But production has decreased by 5.6% year-on-year as of Sept 2. in light of below-average monsoon rainfall, which affected harvest, Nomura said. Big rice-producing India states such as West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are receiving 30% to 40% less rainfall, Varma said.

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